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sole-cliff-56

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2023 Season Stats

0.633488

Relative Brier Score

6

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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 Definitions
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Why do you think you're right?
Countries with authoritarian regimes are likely to repress the AI generated content if they cannot control the outcome
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Why might you be wrong?
Largescale policys of AI generated models has been rumored as top leaders dive into the new topic.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
American public have little to no interest in C2PA correlation to these news sources unless they raise the issue themselves and inform the readers
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Why might you be wrong?
Mandate by government to contain C2PA is possible.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
This is probably based out of the already used algorithms and models used from Meta
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Why might you be wrong?
Varied use of the model data may indicate smaller unique threats 
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Likely to face resistance from privacy policies or giving creators freedom to choose if its available such as allowing locations data to be shared.
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Why might you be wrong?
Widespread adoption could force the issue.
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New Prediction
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
sole-cliff-56 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Societal sentiment toward one system identification is poor.
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Why might you be wrong?
Government adoption could spur increased use.
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sole-cliff-56 earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Applications such as Twitter have transition to show more transparency in data, such as the view count feature. Current leadership, Elon Musk, has great interest into AI and thus the natural if not forced topic of an AI label is likely to occur on that specific platform. 
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Why might you be wrong?
Exposing posts written by AI might violate privacy agreements and degrade content creators.  
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