These outlets are often looked at as more reliable and more tame in their leanings (depending on which people and places you ask). They may want to maintain that level of prestige by making it clear to all their readers that their sourcing is always checked and that they won't show images or video's or text unless they can varify it. It's in their best interest to do so to keep their credibility.
0.464728
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Again, it's still a business in the end. Digital Provenance may slow down the news production and may not be worth it in the end.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It would be a sign of the times. From my experience META has a robust ability to track Influence operations. I would not be surprised if their data indicated a language model was introduced.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I don't think META wouldn't report it, but i'd only think they wouldnt, only if they didn't detect it (doubtful) or if it wasn't used.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Services will need to see how this economically effects them, if this would increase engagement and new user signups.
If digital provenance doesn't increase money into the company, they won't be bothered to implement it.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Services will need to see how this economically effects them, if this would increase engagement and new user signups.
If digital provenance doesn't increase money into the company, they won't be bothered to implement it.
If digital provenance doesn't increase money into the company, they won't be bothered to implement it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
40%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
In certain states, this type of education might be accused as another layer to CRT style instruction and thus would probably be fought against at the local school board level.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be underestimating schools want to educate.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
Yes
61%
No
Why do you think you're right?
These services don't currently have the best track record at actively identifying MIS/DIS on their product. Twitter has recently be shown to be a safe haven for fact free messaging.
Unless there shows to be a high demand from it's user base to have AI content identified for them, these services won't go out of there way to do the due dillegence to identify the AI content.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Money talks. These services might realize it is in their best interest to be on the forefront of AI identification and sell it as them protecting their user base. If it is economically more viable to lean forward on the AI identification, they will.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?