This would be a major cost added to their operating costs
0.837089
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They might have an unknown financial incentive
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
this is already happening, so i expect it to be included
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Meta will decide not to include for corporate reasons
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
i think this is 50/50 because i understand the use case but think there will be legal challenges
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
25%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
I think there are worries from users about information security and privacy
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Many people are open to the ID of convenience
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
First, labeling posts has already been widely used from flagging, to community notes, etc and second this is something that people are actively concerned with so the platforms are most certainly planning for some way to assuage worries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The platforms find it too difficult and/or controversial.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?