the system may not be capable or advanced enough to determine an influence operation
2.662444
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
perhaps the system is capable of identifying an influence operation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
data continues to be manipulated and at least one of these organizations will prioritize digital provenance over the course of this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
this issue may not be as pressing until we get further into the 2024 election cycle
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
30%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Messaging is lacking about World ID and rationale for registration.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps the messaging has been more effective outside of US.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Due to the upcoming Presidential election, at least one of the named companies will want to increase legitimacy in their product by labeling posts as AI.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pervasive use of AI may make it untenable for any of the named corporations to start labeling all AI-generated posts
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?