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Scott Lawrence
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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 10:50PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 9%
No 96% 91%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 11:06PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 5%
No 95% 95%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2024 11:15PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 17, 2024 02:26PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 5%
No 80% 95%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 17, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 36%
No 50% 64%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 17, 2024 08:27PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 40% Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 Dec 17, 2024 24%
No 60% Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025 Dec 17, 2024 76%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 17, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:49AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 12%
No 85% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 88%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 04:55AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 0%
No 98% Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 Dec 19, 2024 100%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 19, 2024 05:43AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 1% 1%
Oman 2% 2%
Qatar 2% 1%
Saudi Arabia 2% 2%
Tunisia 1% 1%
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