They recently adjusted the policy from 7 to 5 days quarantine this week and their health organization is telling government to prepare for mutations and increased spread of the epidemic during the winter. https://www.npr.org/2022/11/11/1135981149/china-eases-its-zero-covid-policy-with-shorter-quarantines-and-less-restrictions
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Economic reasons motivate a new methodic and re-naming the initiative.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
With Biden Green new deal-type of government financing programs and increase of fast-track train and alternative self-driving vehicles (including self-driving mini-helicopter cabs), airlines have to adapt. If technology and factory is in place, the earlier they can introduce testing the better.
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Why might you be wrong?
Definition of sustainable fuel, longer time to innovate, airline industry being fluctuating due to natural disasters and unforeseen events might make companies go bankrupt or lack of cash or guts to invest in new technology.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
There would have to be an organized opposition and his own party members turning against him. For so many years he's expanded his power, I don't see it happening now. Alas, I leave room for a few per cent probabilities of it happening or that someone would assassinate him before the 1st of March 2023.
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Why do you think you're right?
Not exactly a blossoming and enthusiastic market place right now for an IPO?
Why might you be wrong?
A benefit of not risking the market to over-value stock at IPO and stock performing better over time?