The substandard reporting and lack of evidence-based reporting in the NYT will force them to try to regain the same level of trust that the Wall Street Journal currently has amongst senior level decision-makers.
2.092461
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm not.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Much concern in broader public. Even if tenuous or uncertain, Meta must be seen as addressing AI in influence reports.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may want to gather more evidence and wait a year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Too hard and will affect user postings.--there would need to be an education program that could not be accomplished in the next six months across all social media.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Social media may incentivize users who do acquiesce to new standards.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Growing concern with digital privacy and hesitancy to embrace blue check in Twitter and other social media. No benefit to users posting excerpt for a few early adopters.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Social media companies may require to access platform due to legal, marketing or business reasons.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
CYA legal issues for social media companies
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Problems with outliers and poor writers may trigger AI notification leading to social media trying to avoid controversy.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?