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the_lazy_ranch

About:

I’ve predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1968 when I sat and cried as Nixon’s supporters cheered. I haven’t liked many of the results but I always knew when they were coming. I voted for Biden but I know he’ll lose in 2024 if anyone but Trump opposes him. I was horrified when Hillary won the nomination in 16 because she was just hated by the right.

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2022 Season Stats

-0.001684

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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My First Question

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?
the_lazy_ranch made their 1st forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Nov 25, 2022 11:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Oct 25, 2022 to Nov 25, 2022
Why do you think you're right?

Nukes are far more effective as a deterrent than a weapon.  Putin’s mean as a rattler in a trap but he’s not stupid.  

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Why might you be wrong?

There is some speculation that he’s on steroids and that they’re affecting him mentally.  If he’s really unbalanced he might just go nuclear.

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