We do not have a way to detect quantum computing involvement.
-0.970604
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Less than 7%
41%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
32%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
12%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
2%
More than or equal to 22%
Why do you think you're right?
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will pull back small amount of territory over the next six months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia may find its footing or perform a counter attack via Belarus.
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
The time frame is too soon and there is a low likelihood that the model will cause enough trouble that governments will ban it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
I doubt industry can move quickly enough to integrate these standards into software and equipment.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
They will not be able to detect it and I doubt they care.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
There is no compelling monetary reason to do so.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Very few people know what World ID is.
Files
New Badge
Still no way to determine if quantum computing was involved.