No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
Putin has spent years cultivating not only his power but powerful allies in the Russian government, which lowers the likelihood of forced removal. His narcissistic behavior indicates he is not capable of willingly stepping down as he would see it as a personal failure (which would be anathema to him).
Regarding the economic and financial sanctions, these are only effective when unilaterally enforced. Numerous states, especially in the southern hemisphere, have demonstrated that they are willing to continue doing business with Russia despite the sanctions.
Short of a major power (such as China or the United States) directly intervening militarily, it is highly unlikely that Vladimir Putin will cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024. Given that Russia has historically provided a counter-balance against the United States, and China's willingness to circumvent (or at the very least, skirt) economic sanctions against Russia, China has no incent