Ukraine situation should not increase the probability of this as much as forecasted by some
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 14, 2023 03:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Nov 14, 2023 to May 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+1%)
Yes
base rate, health issues most likely cause
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 14, 2023 03:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
Nov 14, 2023 to Dec 14, 2023
Would only happen if landscape of international pressure shifted significantly
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Feb 14, 2024 03:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Nov 14, 2023 to May 14, 2024
97%
No
Nov 14, 2023 to May 14, 2024
Never happened before, base rate
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
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Labelling tech will probably be too brittle and inconsistent for anyone to like the look of it