vincientarnold

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I'm a financial stability research associate at Yale. I studied foreign affairs at UVA beforehand, and focused on Eastern Asia. I previously worked at an international law firm as a research assistant for international financial crimes.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? 1.015718
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? 0.014339
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? 0.000608
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? 0.033346
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined? 0.423441
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.002384
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.001725
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.000544
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.000754
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.000586
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? 0.000769
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) 0.008347
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? -0.001615
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) 0.116739
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election? -0.001034
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