yagudin

misha
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I also forecast on https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/28899

(As of Feb 2022, I no longer update most of my forecasts here.)

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00008
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.005442
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.003452
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive? -0.011876
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021? -0.001352
Jun 01, 2021 06:44PM UTC Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021? -0.000359
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.005852
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.039858
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.077325
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.063605
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? -0.002912
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.106874
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.005817
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020? -0.010088
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.000319
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? -0.018126
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? -0.149756
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? -0.023811
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.001442
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? 0.001596
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