Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 4% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 96% | +3% | -1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jan 31, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 23% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 70% | 77% | -7% | +1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:43AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +1% |
| No | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 10% | 8% | +2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 15% | 4% | +11% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:44AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 37% | +13% | +1% |
| No | 50% | 63% | -13% | -1% |