RAND Forecasting Initiative

2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.05724
Aug 1, 2022 04:00AM	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.045202
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	0.572308
May 1, 2022 04:00AM	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	0.207371
Apr 1, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.045991
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.195707
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.000871
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.0
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.0
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.0
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021)	-0.001177