RAND Forecasting Initiative

2021 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.128838
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.011102
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.039923
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.010247
Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM	Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?	-0.049415
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.001228
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.045363
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.220369
Oct 1, 2021 06:31PM	[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?	-0.087936
Jul 1, 2021 05:30PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	0.017043