RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	-0.026815
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.000606
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	-0.001386
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.000992
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	-0.002859
Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022)	0.000781
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)	0.0008
Jul 29, 2022 01:55PM UTC	How much revenue will Intel report for the second quarter of 2022?	0.061922
Jul 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC	How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.01806
Jun 30, 2022 09:02PM UTC	On 30 June 2022, how much funding will Crunchbase’s “Hub for Artificial Intelligence Companies Founded in the Last Year” report that those companies have raised?	-0.004179
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC	What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022?	-0.029007
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.010875
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.0573
Feb 24, 2022 03:00PM UTC	What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?	-0.00844

Nonrival

About: