RAND Forecasting Initiative

2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.526247
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.013931
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.003123
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.001342
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.003
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.001827
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.003003
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.001445
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	-0.00413
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	-0.001813