AnotherWorld

Dan

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Just watchin' the clouds float by.

GJO Profile: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/12694

Metaculus profile: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/113950/

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2022 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	-0.003553
Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	-0.007728
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.001456
Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022)	-0.00005
Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022)	-0.0002
Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022)	-0.000047
Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022)	0.0
May 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022)	-0.001667
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM	When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?	0.304651
Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM	Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022)	-0.001826
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.10433