Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.001603
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.023542
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.000506
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? -0.008962
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.080288
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020? -0.014033
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.01622
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? -0.010197
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? -0.149702
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM UTC What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.047038
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? -0.050482
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.001208
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? -0.009583
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020? -0.302069
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020? -0.009598
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020? -0.004426
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020? -0.04385
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020? -0.031036
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