RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.0
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	0.060733
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.274939
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.031766
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.163201
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	0.0
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	0.042972
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	0.086993
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.176178
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC	What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022?	-0.206722
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.033329
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022?	0.251237
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022?	0.219929
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	0.000042
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.055555
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.177998
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.000077
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	0.014795
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.004024
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.007219

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