RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.452264
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.164134
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.128525
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.16862
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.048416
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.039533
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	0.336567
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?	0.006078
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?	0.070288
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.018666
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC	How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022?	-0.029903
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.107134
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.181084
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?	0.13969
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.226784
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company announce plans to build a semiconductor fab in Europe?	-0.223613
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.002621
Dec 29, 2022 05:00AM UTC	In the next six months, will U.S. and China announce the establishment of an ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 31, 2022 and Jun 29, 2022)	0.003359
Aug 09, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. President sign legislation which appropriates funds for the Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program during FY'22?	0.049072
Aug 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	0.040009

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