RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?	0.613223
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	0.278827
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?	0.340473
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	In 2022, will a Chinese institution have the most "high impact" AI research publications?	0.360071
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.405264
Dec 29, 2022 10:00PM UTC	What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?	0.155084
Oct 31, 2022 01:49PM UTC	How many U.S. teams will be named as a Winner or Runner Up at the 2022 iGEM Grand Jamboree in Paris?	-0.354204

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