RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?	0.027113
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?	0.448698
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?	0.291744
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	-0.001206
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.003053
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?	-0.000384
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.179856
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	-0.04236
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?	-0.007289
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.040788
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	-0.170485
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.021986
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	0.475678
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?	0.038393

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