ninjaedit

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I work at the Center on Longterm Risk in London. I've tried out some AI and Covid forecasting on Metaculus and done well. I'm interested in learning more about policy because it's something I haven't thought about much, and I don't follow the news.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.024966
Oct 01, 2020 06:17PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? -0.055342
Oct 01, 2020 02:37PM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive? 0.010648
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? 0.003583
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive? 0.005085
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020? 0.029087
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020? 0.052256
Jul 18, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. government cancel or shorten the 24-month STEM extension to the Optional Practical Training program by July 17, 2020? 0.001308
Jul 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the Indian government continue the TikTok ban through July 14, 2020? 0.006462
Jul 10, 2020 02:04PM UTC Will the Executive Branch delay implementation of any part of Section 889, Part B, of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act by July 17, 2020? -0.049061
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