palexd

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Epidemiologist & data scientist, lead an OSINT team focused on health security.

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  • 2022 Season
    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.001756
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.093553
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.069657
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.003035
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? 0.004546
    Jan 1, 2023 05:00AM Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.001576
    Dec 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000577
    Dec 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 3, 2022 and Dec 3, 2022) 0.00005
    Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.001968
    Nov 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 3, 2022 and Nov 3, 2022) 0.0
    Oct 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.000113
    Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.00009
    Aug 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.000368
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? -0.358477
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.345748
    Jul 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 3, 2022 and Jul 3, 2022) 0.001333
    Jun 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between May 3, 2022 and Jun 3, 2022) 0.001484
    May 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) 0.003127
    Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -0.062359
    Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) 0.0
     
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