RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.784978
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.002899
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	-0.001168
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.037759
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000386
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	-0.07562
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.037655
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.428619

Riccardo-Varenna