RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.164331
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	0.007613
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	0.001554
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	0.000005
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.022592
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	0.128718
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.004765
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	-0.00022
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.002108
Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)	0.0
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.004319

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