RAND Forecasting Initiative

2020 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.281794
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.113887
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.03036
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.263515
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.003979
Oct 20, 2020 01:16PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.236592
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.006141
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.039296
Sep 1, 2020 01:31PM	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.019206
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	-0.009351