35th
Accuracy Rank

Patrick-Gavin

Patrick Gavin
About:

I suffered from a severe head injury as a child that left me in a coma for a month and then paralyzed after that. I managed to gain most function back. I work in higher education IT.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.109455
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.086055
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? -0.097208
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.000056
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? 0.035832
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? 0.0
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