RAND Forecasting Initiative

2020 Season

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.021221
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.000448
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.097563
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	-0.068267
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.007749
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.154248
Oct 31, 2020 03:04PM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?	0.020409
Oct 21, 2020 02:47PM	What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	-0.001671
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.031354
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000725
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	0.006029
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.036803
Sep 1, 2020 01:31PM	Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?	-0.002615