RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.06367
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.061766
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	0.049405
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	0.037719
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.022206
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.041464

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