yagudin

misha
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I also forecast on https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/28899

(As of Feb 2022, I no longer update most of my forecasts here.)

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.039858
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM UTC What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work? 0.077325
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.063605
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? -0.002912
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.106874
Feb 01, 2021 02:47PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.005817
Jan 04, 2021 01:58PM UTC What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020? -0.010088
Jan 04, 2021 01:49PM UTC What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? -0.000319
Nov 03, 2020 05:49PM UTC Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020? -0.018126
Nov 03, 2020 02:25PM UTC Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020? -0.149756
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020? -0.023811
Oct 01, 2020 04:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020? -0.001442
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020? 0.001596
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM UTC Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020? -0.2389
Sep 01, 2020 01:31PM UTC Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020? -0.004208
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