RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.100078
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.379548
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.621977
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.027495
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.498756
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?	-0.00167
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	0.017403
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.02926
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	0.017884

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