RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.08444
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	-0.169824
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	0.134638
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.247188
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	-0.031087
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	1.302706
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.278503
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.460364
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	-0.153312
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.109793
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	-0.048774
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.280661
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.552051
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM UTC	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	0.100664
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.057014
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	0.15856

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