Apply to be an RFI Pro Forecaster
Be part of a team forecasting to aid U.S. policy research and analysis.
Applications to the Pro Forecaster Program are accepted on a rolling basis throughout the season. Pros are paid to contribute forecasts each month, participate in training, and collaborate with other forecasters on the site.
ApplyWho Can Apply?
While most Pro Forecasters are selected based on past performance on RFI, we reserve a few spots in each season’s cohort for Open Call applicants who meet the following criteria:
Top-ranked forecasters on similar forecasting sites. Have you ranked in the Top 50 or better on a popular forecasting site, such as Metaculus and Good Judgment Open? Show us your track record to be considered as an RFI Pro Forecaster. Ideally, you can show forecasting skill in one or more of the topics we cover on RFI, including high-risk geopolitical events, science, and technology.
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Anyone with a professional background or expertise in one of our priority forecasting topics. Are you an experienced practitioner, scientist, researcher, graduate student, or professor? U.S. policymakers want to get signals from you on future trends in these fields. Prior forecasting experience is not required.
About the Role of a Pro Forecaster
The primary role of a Pro Forecaster is to make and update forecasts, committing 8-10 hours per month to the activity at your convenience. As part of this commitment, we will ask you to:
Forecast weekly (preferred) or bi-weekly (at a minimum) to ensure that you are generating timely forecasts: this includes submitting new forecasts and updating prior forecasts to indicate how your perspective has changed;
Write thoughtful rationales consistent with forecasting best practices;
Forecast on questions for which we need data: we might ask you to focus on specific questions in a given month. Be vigilant about forecasting on questions that have less activity or are closing soon;
Stay up to date on the questions that are active on RFI and proactively find relevant information to inform your forecasts; and
Attend occasional virtual meetings and events with other RFI Pro Forecasters.
Applications to the Pro Forecaster Program are accepted on a rolling basis throughout the season.
Maintaining Pro Forecaster Status
You will maintain Pro Forecaster status for the duration of the season so long as you continue to meet the monthly commitments as evidenced by your participation level. Pros who meet their commitment may be invited back for the next season.
Why Become a Pro?
Earned compensation - You will earn USD 200 per month for every month you complete as a Pro. You will receive compensation via direct deposit through Gusto (if you are based in the U.S.) or Veem (non-U.S.). Payments will be dispersed quarterly.
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Professional credentials - Your experience as a Pro Forecaster can be added to your professional resume, LinkedIn profile, and similar social platforms to boost your credentials.
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Community - Learn alongside a team of highly accurate and passionate forecasters and grow your professional network. Pros will also collaborate as a cohort and within their smaller teams through dedicated channels, such as our Pro Discord server and forecasting meetups.
Development of forecasting skill - Pros will have access to forecaster training resources aiming to improve individual forecasting accuracy and hone best practices.
Contributions to government decision-making - Your forecasts will provide RAND researchers and the policymakers they support with predictive insights that inform decision making.
Invitations to exclusive Pro events - You will be invited to attend exclusive virtual events and forecasting meetups with RAND research experts on various topics.
About RFI
The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is a new forecasting capability that aims to support policy analysis and decision making with crowdsourced predictions from RAND analysts and an external global community of forecasters. This collective intelligence generates predictive trends and early signals that augment traditional RAND research tools and expertise.
RFI is supported by Cultivate Labs.
How to Apply
Send an email to [email protected] that includes:
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Your name
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Brief explanation of why you want to be a Pro Forecaster
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Your resume or link to your public LinkedIn profile
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Brief description of your experience in the topics forecasted on RFI and proof of your accuracy and participation from a forecasting site similar to RFI. For example, send us a screenshot or report showing your accuracy score/ranking, screename, and sample forecasts and commentary.