Review Question
Will Ukraine have control of this point in Sverdlikovo, Kursk Oblast, Russia, on 31 December 2024?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 50% |
| No | 50% |
Sverdlikovo, near the Ukrainian-Russian border, was one of the first settlements captured by Ukrainian forces when they launched their operation in Kursk Oblast on 6 August 2024. Within 3 days, Ukrainian forces had captured at least 250 square kilometers of Russian territory. Ukrainian troops are reportedly digging trenches with the objective of holding the territory, according to Forbes. Specifically this question asks about the general location according to Google Maps of Sverdlikovo's high school, which is a recognizable landmark in the settlement for geolocation purposes by war mappers.
Instructions:
- Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, here.
- Scroll down to the interactive map.
- If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
- Paste these coordinates into the search box: 51°15'00.8"N 35°07'05.4"E.
This question resolves as Yes if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled on 31 December 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance. However, please note that if ISW offers new labels or descriptions for Ukraine's territorial control in Kursk Oblast, those will apply.
If the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control on that date, this question resolves as No.
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Thanks @telycorbett Yeah, I'm sure it could. For example, if the original source goes down or stops updating on a regular basis, you'd want another one. I have to confess my ignorance though, that I can't figure out how to do coordinates on that Live UA Map.
I think it's interesting about questions. I write a lot for Metaculus, and if there's one thing I've learned over time, resolution source can often be more difficult than one would expect.
Hey @johnnycaffeine - as you say, might be worth having a backup. I've figured coordinates can be used in UA Map in 3 ways for resolution. 1) Cross reference map where you can add coordintes with UA map (although least accurate). 2) Use the 'cross' and drag it on screen based on the coordinates in the bottom right corner 3) Type in the coordinates into the search bar. Pictures attached for 2) and 3).
Great question. Could another map (e.g. Live UA map) be used to assist resolution?