Review Question

Will Bashir Assad still be internationally recognized as President of Syria on Dec 31 2026, or will he cease to act in that role for any reason.

Answer Initial Probability
Yes 50%
No 50%
Description

Assad lost Aleppo almost instantly after a Coalition of Jihadist and Turkiye launched a major offensive. There are reliable reports that Assads forces retreated from Idlib Province. It is also reported that Assad left Syria on the Next Flight Out to Russia ostensibly to visit sick wife.

Given that the military conflict was frozen for many years, is it possible that a Coalition of insurgent forces could advance on Damascus and oust Assad.

Obviously Iran and Hezbollah and Russia were busy elsewhere but several Russian planes bombed a suburb of Aleppo.

Allegations of war crimes and torture and use of chemical and weapons and distribution of billion dollars worth of Captagon make Assad a barrier to regional peace and Israel Defense Forces will be bombing Syria constantly to interdict weapons to Hezbollah.

Assad  could fall 

Starts
Nov 30, 2024 02:28PM UTC
Closes
Dec 31, 2026 02:28PM UTC
Topics
International Diplomacy & Conflict Iran: Threats & Influence
Tags
Syria

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