Review Question
Will WHO declare this the next Pandemic ?
An unknown illness has emerged in the Congo region of Africa, specifically in the Panzi health zone of Kwango province. The disease has resulted in at least 67 deaths between November 10 and November 25, 2024. The symptoms reported include fever, headaches, coughing, and anemia.
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes, it is the next pandemic. | 50% |
| No, WHO does not declare it is not the next pandemic | 50% |
A) An unknown illness has emerged in the Congo region of Africa, specifically in the Panzi health zone of Kwango province. The disease has resulted in at least 67 deaths between November 10 and November 25, 2024. The symptoms reported include fever, headaches, coughing, and anemia.
Local health authorities, along with the World Health Organization (WHO), are actively investigating the outbreak. A team of epidemiological experts has been deployed to the region to collect samples and identify the cause of the illness2. The provincial health minister, Apollinaire Yumba, has urged residents to take precautions and avoid handling the deceased to prevent potential spread.
This health crisis comes amid an ongoing mpox epidemic in the Congo, which has already seen over 47,000 suspected cases and more than 1,000 suspected deaths.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has specific criteria for declaring a pandemic, which includes globally widespread and sustained disease transmission among humans. Given the severity of the situation in the Congo region, with at least 67 deaths and symptoms like fever, headaches, coughing, and anemia, it's crucial for health experts to monitor the situation closely.
No challenges selected
WHO report-
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON546
Situation at a glance
Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age. The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause. Rapid response teams have been deployed to identify the cause of the outbreak and strengthen the response. The teams are collecting samples for laboratory testing, providing a more detailed clinical characterization of the detected cases, investigating the transmission dynamics, and actively searching for additional cases, both within health facilities and at the community level. The teams are also aiding with the treatment of patients, risk communication and community engagement. Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor. Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases. Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause. At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.