Review Question
Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?
| Answer | Initial Probability |
|---|---|
| Yes | 38% |
| No | 62% |
Author
Description
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Russia's invasion in February 2022, has seen various attempts at peace negotiations. Talks of a ceasefire have increased in recent weeks as senior U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia on 18 February 2025 to discuss improving ties and ending the war in Ukraine. However, Ukraine was not invited to these talks (CBS News, Reuters). Ukraine and the U.S. are also negotiating a deal that would give the U.S. rights to a percentage of Ukraine’s natural mineral resources, though the extent of the security guarantees that Ukraine would receive in return is yet to be determined (Bloomberg, New York Times).
Additionally, support for ending the war is growing among Ukrainians, with 32% now willing to concede territory in exchange for peace, up from 10% in 2022 according to Chatham House (Chatham House). A recent Gallup poll indicates that 52% of Ukrainians want a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, with more than half of those saying Ukraine "should be open to making some territorial concessions" (Gallup). Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, believes a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia can be reached in 2025, but stressed the importance of NATO membership (Euromaidan Press).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as "Yes" if a ceasefire or other peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is agreed to before 1 October 2025. The ceasefire must be confirmed by credible sources such as the United Nations, OSCE, or official statements from both Ukrainian and Russian governments. A temporary, localized, or partial ceasefire that does not cover the entire conflict zone will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
Starts
Mar 4, 2025 10:00PM
Closes
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
Topics
International Diplomacy & Conflict
Russia-Ukraine War
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