Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?
Started
May 28, 2020 08:14PM
Closed Sep 1, 2020 03:59AM (5 years ago)
Closed Sep 1, 2020 03:59AM (5 years ago)
Topics
Seasons
Context. On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China entered into a trade agreement, offering a reprieve to the escalating trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed China's purchases of U.S. goods required by the agreement, and President Trump has threatened to terminate the agreement if China does not uphold its end (Washington Post).
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on reports in popular media sources. An official announcement of withdrawal qualifies.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11.55% | |
| No | 88.45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 145 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 236 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - May 28, 2020 4:14PM EDT (95 days before close, question was 0% complete)