Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?
Closed Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
Context. The People’s Republic of China regards Taiwan as an inevitable part of its territory and has threatened to invade it if the Taiwanese government takes steps toward formally declaring independence (Anti-Seccession Law, 2005). The current President of Taiwan, Tsai Ying-wen, belongs to a pro-independence political party. She was re-elected to office in January 2020. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also conducted force modernization and drills to improve its readiness to invade Taiwan (2019 China Military Power Report).
Data and resolution details. The question resolves based on popular media sources. "Invade" refers to initiating hostilities for the purpose of annexation.
This question is a metric for the following scenarios:
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Question clarification
This question resolves affirmatively if China seizes an island indisputably under Taiwan's jurisdiction. The request for clarification was prompted by a statement in the Washington Post article linked below regarding the possibility China seizes one of Taiwan's outlying islands. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/taiwan-says-threat-of-military-clash-with-china-is-on-the-rise/2020/07/22/6f6da4c8-cc0c-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html?hpid=hp_world1-8-12_taiwan-china-840am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.19% | |
| No | 94.81% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 136 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 175 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
