What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?
Closed Sep 28, 2020 04:00PM UTC
Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the seven months ending July 31, 2020 were $280 billion. Data for those seven months are not included in the graph below.
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:
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Question clarification
This question is limited to imports and exports of goods, as reported here by the U.S. Census Bureau here: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html. It does not include services.
The answer is $560.1 billion.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $300 billion | 3% | |
| Between $300 billion and $450 billion, inclusive | 25% | |
| More than $450 billion but less than or equal to $600 billion | 60% | |
| More than $600 billion but less than or equal to $750 billion | 10% | |
| More than $750 billion | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 63 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
