What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?
Started
Jun 06, 2020 12:26AM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."
The data underlying the graph is here.
This question is a metric for the following world forecasts:
- COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
- Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
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Resolution Notes
The actual value was 1.3%. For the data, see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NGdFBVc4nnIzwwVKbwScyIGYhzCv_zXKqoVkCzU7MX0/edit#gid=0
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.5% | 13% | |
| Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive | 49% | |
| More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5% | 23% | |
| More than 1.5% | 15% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 57 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 63 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
