How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021

Started Aug 17, 2021 12:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this blog post.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on publication and grant data from Dimensions. A publication is an AI publication if it would be categorized under the artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multi-agent systems, or robotics categories on arXiv, as determined by a CSET-developed classifier. "Highly cited" publications are those in the top 10 percent by citation count. A publication is a "U.S. publication" if any of its authors are affiliated with an institution based in the United States.

The percentage being forecasted is the number of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant as a percentage of the total number of highly cited U.S. AI publications. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Resolution Notes

The answer is 4.4%


This question is a resolved time period from How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1 3%
More than or equal to 1 but less than 2 2%
More than or equal to 2 but less than 3 5%
More than or equal to 3 but less than 4 11%
More than or equal to 4 but less than 5 21%
More than or equal to 5 but less than 6 23%
More than or equal to 6 but less than 7 11%
More than or equal to 7 but less than 9 11%
More than or equal to 9 but less than 12 9%
More than or equal to 12 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 111
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.085401
2.
-0.077782
3.
-0.067174
4.
-0.064496
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