How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021
Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
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Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on publication and grant data from Dimensions. A publication is an AI publication if it would be categorized under the artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multi-agent systems, or robotics categories on arXiv, as determined by a CSET-developed classifier. "Highly cited" publications are those in the top 10 percent by citation count. A publication is a "U.S. publication" if any of its authors are affiliated with an institution based in the United States.
The percentage being forecasted is the number of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant as a percentage of the total number of highly cited U.S. AI publications.
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The historical data underlying the graph is here.
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The answer is 4.4%
This question is a resolved time period from How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 1 | 3% | |
More than or equal to 1 but less than 2 | 2% | |
More than or equal to 2 but less than 3 | 5% | |
More than or equal to 3 but less than 4 | 11% | |
More than or equal to 4 but less than 5 | 21% | |
More than or equal to 5 but less than 6 | 23% | |
More than or equal to 6 but less than 7 | 11% | |
More than or equal to 7 but less than 9 | 11% | |
More than or equal to 9 but less than 12 | 9% | |
More than or equal to 12 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 48 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 111 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |