Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Started Jul 22, 2020 12:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
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Context. On July 15, 2020, hackers took control of 45 prominent Twitter users' accounts, including the accounts of Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos. The apparent purpose of the hack was a Bitcoin scam, but some have speculated that the Bitcoin scam "may mask a much more troubling data breach involving the personal communications of the world's most powerful people" (CNN). Twitter stated on July 17 that for "up to eight" accounts, the hackers downloaded account data through Twitter's "Your Twitter Data" tool.

Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on popular media sources.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 18.03%
No 81.97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 326
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.192544
2.
-0.191916
3.
-0.184239
4.
-0.176166
5.
-0.168466

Consensus Trend

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