How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1

Started Aug 24, 2021 01:30PM UTC
Closed Mar 31, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Seasons

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this blog post.

Related question. We previously published versions of this question—asking about the amount of money raised over a six-month period—forecasting the second half of 2020 and the second half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here and here.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded.

The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. This question resolves based on data available 30 days after the end of each period. The question—and the graph below—therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. 

The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Resolution Notes

$250.5 billion


This question is a resolved time period from How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 60 2%
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80 1%
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100 2%
More than or equal to 100 but less than 120 3%
More than or equal to 120 but less than 135 3%
More than or equal to 135 but less than 150 5%
More than or equal to 150 but less than 165 7%
More than or equal to 165 but less than 180 11%
More than or equal to 180 but less than 200 17%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 225 20%
More than or equal to 225 but less than 260 17%
More than or equal to 260 but less than 300 7%
More than or equal to 300 but less than 350 3%
More than or equal to 350 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 48
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 113
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.129603
2.
-0.097717
3.
-0.091418
4.
-0.090916
5.
-0.086626
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