Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
Closed Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here.
Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914.
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Question clarification
To resolve positively, the lawsuit must be brought the federal government, e.g., the U.S. Attorney General or Federal Trade Commission. A lawsuit brought by a state or the District of Columbia does not count.
This question states that "a lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914." A lawsuit brought under a new U.S. (federal law) antirust Act also qualifies, provided that Act incorporates the enforcement powers of the Sherman Act, Clayton Act, or Federal Trade Commission Act. Four of the five antitrust-related bills under consideration would qualify. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/amazon-apple-facebook-and-google-targeted-in-bipartisan-antitrust-reform-bills.html. The Ending Platform Monopolies Act, American Choice and Innovation Online Act, and Platform Competition and Opportunity Act would qualify because they all contain the following enforcement provision: "The Commission and the Department of Justice shall enforce this Act in the same manner, by the same means, and with the same jurisdiction, powers, and duties as though all applicable terms and provisions of the Federal Trade Commission Act (15 U.S.C. 16 41 et seq.) or the Clayton Act (15 U.S.C. 12 et seq.), as appropriate, were incorporated into and made a part of this Act." The Merger Filing Fee Modernization Act would qualify because it, if enacted, would become a part of the Clayton Act. The Augmenting Compatibility and Competition by Enabling Service Switching Act would not qualify.
For this question, the date a lawsuit is filed is the date the original complaint is filed. The FTC's lawsuit against Facebook under the Clayton Act would qualify for this question, except that it was filed in December 2020. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia has given the FTC until August 19 to file an amended complaint. https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-ftc-asks-more-time-file-amended-complaint-facebook-case-2021-07-23/. The fact of an amended complaint will not render this lawsuit one filed during this question's forecast period: January 20, 2021 to January 19, 2025.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 79.55% | |
| No | 20.45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 211 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 729 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
