When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?
Closed Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM UTC
Context. China has not yet recognized a winner of the U.S. presidential election. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated: "We noticed that Mr. Biden has declared election victory . . . We understand that the U.S. presidential election result will be determined following U.S. law and procedures." In 2016, President Xi Jinping congratulated President Trump on November 9, one day after the election.
Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. We will consider a statement by President Xi Jingping or any other official government statement as a qualifying event.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before November 25 | 32% | |
| Between November 25 and December 22, inclusive | 36% | |
| Between December 23 and January 20, inclusive | 22% | |
| After January 20 | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 41 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 48 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
