What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Started Jan 31, 2022 01:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
Seasons

Climate change is making droughts more frequent, severe and pervasive (NASA) and is one of the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Indicators. In January 2022, over 36% of the continental United States was experiencing severe drought or worse, according to the US Drought Monitor. The Western United States has been at particular risk (New York Times) with a majority of the region experiencing severe drought over the past year. 

Question will be resolved based on the data available at the US Drought Monitor at 5pm ET on 22 February 2022.

"Severe drought or worse" refers to a U.S. Drought Monitor classification of D2-D4 (severe, extreme, or exceptional drought).


Question clarification
Issued on 02/22/22 02:48am
We will be using the drought monitor data labeled February 22nd data to resolve the question. If the data for the 22nd isn't available for when the question closes, then the question will be closed but pending resolution until that data is online.
Resolution Notes

Drought classification D2-D4 was 36.28 per data released for 2022-02-22.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 33.0 2%
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive 25%
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5 42%
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive 29%
More than 39.0 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 43
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 100
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.088669
2.
-0.055072
3.
-0.052349
4.
-0.041372
5.
-0.03746

Consensus Trend

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